[Clockwise] Green: Actual Ratings & Blue: Expected Ratings for the 1st & 2nd episodes of SBS 'Dae Mool',KBS2 'Sung Kyun Kwan Scandal', KBS2 'Running Man' from AGB Nielson Media Research.
Scientific Methods of Betting For Korea's Advertising Industry
The Korea's advertisement industry recently revealed it's scientific methods of forecasting the ratings and deciding on which dramas to invest in.
Investing in drama ads are considered the most expensive bet, and the advertisement industry must obtain returns that justifies the investment.
Investing in dramas has been the toughest endeavor for the advertisement executives and many variables, such as competing dramas, PD (Directors), Writers, Actors, target audience and etc. are considered.
A statistical model for forecasting a drama's ratings based on such factors based on historical performance is given with statistical margin for error. Nielson and TNS data are used, and the forecast measurements are quite good for most of time. For example, Nielson predicted that drama 'Gloria' which began airing on October 7th to have the ratings of 8.8% for the 1st episode and 8.7% for the 2nd episode. The actual ratings were 8.9% for the 1st, and 8.7% for the 2nd episode.
TV Stations are also evaluated. For example, MBC has been averaging 63.1% less ratings per month during the 8'o clock evening slot from January to July compared to last 2 years. And for last 2 years MBC's average ratings were 10.8% in August. By using the exponential statistical mean 6.6%(10.5*0.631) an average would be reached and Nielson and the advertisement industry can expect this much ratings for this year's August 8pm time slot.
MBC has also took 21.1% market shares compared to three other stations for the last three years. This means that for the last 3years 1 out of every 5 viewers watched MBC during this time slot. And for every 100 families, 55.1% watched TV during this time slot. Therefore August MBC viewers this year is expected to be 11.6%(55.1*0.211).
Then Neilson would take the median of the two expected values, 9.1%(6.6%+11.6%/2)for forecasting the ratings for the time slot. Then they take the individual variables for dramas and assign it's statistic significance.
And such forecasting process provide the advertising industries of method to betting on the dramas.
Of course, on rare occasions, such as it was for 'Baking King Kim Taku' the forecast was way off.
As for the top variables that effect the viewers, PDs, Writers, and Actors were found to be most significant.
For the statistical rankings given by Nielson, Chun Ki Sang PD of 'Boys Before Flowers', 'Delightful Girl Choonyang' came in 1st place, Lee Byung Hoon PD of 'Yi San’,‘Seo Dong Yo’, and etc. came in 2nd, and Park Hong Kyun PD of 'Queen Seon Duk', 'New Hearts' and etc. came in as the 3rd most influential PD.
For the writers, Choi Hyun Kyung of 'Goodbye, Sadness', 'Glass Castle', etc. took 1st, Jo Jung Sun of 'Children of Sol Pharmacy', 'The Era of Daughter In Law', and etc. took 2nd place, and Kim Do Woo of 'My Name Is Kim Sam Soon', 'What Are You Doing, Fox?' took 3rd place.
As for the Actors, Yoon Eun Hye of 'Goong', Coffee Prince, and etc. came in 1st place, Kim Rae Won of 'La Grand Chef', 'Which Star Did You Come From', and etc. took 2nd place and Lee Yo Won of 'Fashion 70's', 'Queen Seon Duk' and etc. came in as the 3rd most important actor for the ratings and advertisement industry.
Sk Marketing & Co. stated, "Data from 255 dramas over past 5 years, since 2005, was used for the forecasting model."
Source: Kooki News, 'Scientific Methods of Betting For Korea's Advertising Industry'.
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